| | | Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Subscribe here | | The Atlantic's George Packer wrote: "Charlie Kirk's murder is a tragedy for his family and a disaster for the country. In an atmosphere of national paranoia and hatred, each act of political violence makes the next one more likely." But that's not what this post is about. The murder is another example of our broken culture. It's a stain on our accomplishments. Many of America's finest achievements took place overseas and have resulted in alliances that have scaled our power. We have wisely nurtured, and invested in, these alliances. Until recently. | | The most powerful image of 2024 was Trump defiantly pumping his fist after an assassin's bullet grazed his ear. Trump also had a hand in this year's most powerful image — a photo of Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi celebrating their new partnership. The caption for that photo should read "Axis of Own Goal," as Trump's geopolitical sclerosis and bullying have isolated America from its allies and united its adversaries. | | Solo Mission | Presidents of both parties have long understood that our strength doesn't flow from our economic output, military prowess, or cultural exports, but the capacity to leverage those assets in service of coalitions that are greater than the sum of their parts. That's not idealism, but pragmatism. The U.S. accounts for 4% of the world's population and 26% of global GDP. By definition, going it alone would mean taking on 96% of humanity and 74% of Earth's economic output. As Winston Churchill said, "There's only one thing worse than fighting a war with allies, and that's fighting a war without them." | Less than a year into Trump's second term, we've lost many friends and much influence. With the president praising authoritarians and casting doubt on our mutual defense commitments, our allies can no longer count on us. Demolishing USAID didn't save much money — at 0.3% of the federal budget, the agency created substantial soft power on the cheap — but it did tell the world's developing nations to look elsewhere for leadership. Meanwhile, Trump's tariffs aren't the crude tools of protectionism, but cudgels deployed in service of his id. (See: The 50% levy on Brazil for bringing criminal charges against former president Jair Bolsonaro for plotting a coup.) Since World War II, America has provided global security and economic stability, while serving as an (imperfect) vehicle to spread democracy and the rule of law. Under Trump, we're an amoral chaos agent. Alienating allies weakens our position relative to China. | | Backfire | In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, George W. Bush coined the phrase Axis of Evil. Good branding, sub-scale threat. In 2002, Iraq, Iran, and North Korea had a combined GDP of $162 billion, compared to U.S. GDP of $11 trillion. China, Russia, and (now) India are a different story. Combined, the three nations account for 38% of the world's population and 34% of global GDP. And unlike the Axis of Evil, the Axis of Own Goal isn't a rhetorical construct, but a product of Trump's ineptitude. As the Economist put it, "To see the cost of Trump's bullying, tally the world leaders flocking to China." | The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit was Modi's first trip to China in seven years. The meeting came just days after Trump's new tariffs on India took effect, hiking duties on some exports to 50% in retaliation for India's continued purchases of Russian oil. The tariff increase only added fuel to a fire Trump set in May, when he claimed credit for ending India's long-running feud with Pakistan. According to Modi, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire on their own, ending a four-day border clash in May. According to Trump and Pakistan, Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. | If the plan was to keep India in place as a bulwark against Chinese expansion and drive it away from Russia, the president's moves backfired spectacularly. India continues buying Russian oil, while stabilizing its relationship with China. At the SCO summit, Xi said China and India should be friends, enable each other's success, and choose cooperation. Modi highlighted "the positive momentum" in bilateral ties, characterizing the nations' relationship as "partners rather than rivals." That's a remarkable turnaround for two countries that fought a border war in 1962 and have had continued clashes ever since, with the most recent skirmish occurring in 2022. Seeing the photo of Putin, Modi, and Xi, Trump posted, "Looks like we've lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China. May they have a long and prosperous future together!" | From Russia with Love (i.e., Oil and Gas) | Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine was supposed to be quick and relatively bloodless. Three years on, it's a stalemate. Russia has suffered more than 1 million casualties. That would be a disaster for any other country, but Russia's willingness to sacrifice the lives of soldiers is a competence. In World War II, the Soviet Union lost 10 million soldiers and another 24 million civilians; the U.S. lost roughly 400,000 soldiers and dropped two atomic bombs to avoid further casualties. | Russia's chief asset is energy. As John McCain once said, "Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country." By some estimates, revenue from oil and gas exports has accounted for 30% to 50% of Russia's budget over the past decade. Sanctioning Russian energy exports has helped Ukraine, but only to a point. The reason? Russia is adding energy clients faster than we can marshal our erstwhile allies in an embargo. Ukraine can't kill its way to victory, but by shifting its strategy to target Russia's energy production it may ultimately inflict a price too high for Russia to stomach. We can and should help Ukraine pursue that strategy. Pushing India closer to Russia and China has the opposite effect. | | Reverse Nixon | Alice Han argued on our newest Prof G podcast, China Decode, that Trump missed a narrow window to do a "reverse Nixon." In 1972, Richard Nixon went to China to drive a wedge between Beijing and Moscow. The gambit worked in geopolitical terms, but it also set the stage for an economic relationship that benefited U.S. corporations and consumers and helped China to lift 600 million people out of poverty between 1981 and 2004. Today, however, China and Russia are united by trade and their opposition to American hegemony, with Beijing as Moscow's senior partner in a relationship the Chinese foreign minister described as "better than allies." | Xi has cultivated his relationship with Putin, calling the Russian leader his "best friend." Last week, with Putin by his side, Xi presided over a military parade that cast China as the allied savior in World War II. In response, Trump posted, "Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America." U.S. presidents with FOMO is a bad look. | Friends and Neighbors | One of America's greatest assets is its geography. Two oceans and a pair of friendly neighbors have saved the hundreds of billions another country might have needed to militarize borders and coastlines. China has land borders with 14 nations and maritime borders with an additional 11. In 1969, China and Russia fought a war over border disputes that dated back to the 18th century. Last year, bilateral trade between them reached an all-time high of $245 billion — double what it was in 2020. | China needs Russian energy to expand its economy, but friendly borders are the geopolitical priority. As journalist James Kynge argued on China Decode, the 1,700 miles of the Amur River that delineate the border between Russia and China tell the story in microcosm. Ten years ago, there weren't any bridges spanning the Amur and commerce was nil. Today there are three bridges and business is booming on both sides of the river. "China's biggest strategic priority is that, if it has to fight a war with Taiwan on its southern border, it can do so without worrying about its northern border with Russia becoming unstable." | Zooming out, China has expanded the SCO and invested $1 trillion in "Belt and Road" infrastructure projects in more than 150 countries since 2013. The outreach has paid dividends. In 2000, U.S. trade totaled $2 trillion — 4x China's total. Since then, U.S. trade has grown 167%; China, now the dominant trade partner for most of the world, has seen its total rise by 1,200% from 2000 to 2024. While China has comparable hegemonic firepower to the U.S. — a dominant military, capital, advanced technology, and cultural influence — we can't plan beyond the next Congressional budget shutdown. China's key asset is its ability to play the long game to achieve stability on its borders while spreading influence globally. | Self-Reliance | Last year, India became the top source of international pupils at U.S. universities, sending 331,602 students — a 23% increase from the previous year and more than any other country, including China. Up until a few months ago, India was one of a handful of countries globally where U.S. favorability remained positive, according to Pew, and one of only five nations where a majority of respondents had confidence in President Trump. Last week a former MMA fighter who showed up at an ICE career expo summed up our deteriorating relationship with India when he told the Washington Post, "I keep seeing these memes where Indians are bragging about taking our tech jobs. So I said, 'Oh yeah? Well I'm going to work with these guys that are going to arrest you, slam your face on the pavement, and send you home.'" | We need India. Notwithstanding Trump's folly, India has been a strategic check on Chinese expansion. We share democratic values, even if both nations are backsliding at the moment. English is widely spoken among India's government officials, business leaders, and knowledge workers, with up to one-third of the population able to understand the language to some degree. India's economy is growing at 6.4% — faster than any other major economy. Half of India's population of 1.4 billion people is under the age of 29. Finally, India provides a pipeline of human capital that our universities and corporations can't do without. Simply put, India's best asset is its future: It looks like China in 2004, minus the totalitarian baggage. That's a partner you want to cultivate. | Does India need us? Maybe not. Since its founding in 1947, India has been wary of alliances, preferring "alignment" as a means of navigating geopolitics. India aligned with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. But in the 1970s, the U.S. granted India special trade status, allowing its goods to enter American markets duty-free. More recently, Modi has renewed the idea of Indian self-reliance, saying, "When we grow and excel, the world will acknowledge our worth." He also set a goal of increasing India's GDP to $10 trillion over the next 12 years — a target that would give India developed nation status. That may be overly ambitious at current growth rates, but according to the World Bank, it's achievable, if Modi can push through an economic reform agenda. | | Consequences | I often say the best way to predict the future is to make it. Right now, America isn't making the future — it's destroying the good will, influence, and leadership it's been building since the end of World War II. As a former Chinese diplomat explained, "The U.S. under Trump is launching revolution after revolution. The Chinese know about revolutions, and we know that you better know what the consequences will be if you launch a revolution. I don't think Trump is fully aware of the consequences of all these tremendous forces he's unleashing around the world." The American century isn't ending with a bang, but with tweets and a trade war. We built an empire in 80 years and are torching it in 8. Our edge was never the missile; it was the handshake. Restore alliances, or hand the 21st century to those who keep theirs. | Life is so rich, | | P.S. Don't just listen to me rage, watch me. Raging Moderates now has a dedicated YouTube channel. Subscribe here. | ____________sponsored content __________ |
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