Democrats Need To Get Serious About Partisan Voter Registration - Some Notes And A Presentation From Tom BonierCongress returns next week and needs to hear a loud roar of disapproval from We The People
Afternoon and morning all. With a new New York Times story (gift link) putting our party’s voter registration struggles back in the news, I am once again sending along my June 21nd discussion about voter registration trends with our friend Tom Bonior (above) and adding a few new notes, below. If you haven’t watched our discussion I strongly recommend getting to it soon. Few have done more to help our party understand our voter registration challenges than Tom. Tom kicks off our discussion with a presentation he put together this spring after all states had reported the vote of every individual voter in the 2024 election (that they voted, not how they voted). From that data, using Target Smart’s database of the vote history of all voters in recent years, Tom has developed new understandings of what happened in 2024. He shares these insights in the presentation and we then spend time breaking it all down for you. There is one very big takeaway from Tom’s new analysis - Republicans out-registered us from 2020 to 2024 and made the battleground states more Republican in 2024 than they were in 2020. In a very close election this successful effort to make more Republicans mattered; and it tells us that we simply must make partisan voter registration - making more Democrats - a much higher priority in the coming years, particularly as this Republican machine that gave them these advantages is not going away. The good news is that Ken Martin’s DNC is making partisan voter registration a major priority for the first time in decades, something we dive into with both Ken and ASDC President Jane Kleeb in our recent discussions. Some of the unprecedented support the DNC is providing to the state parties in all 50 states will go to launching party-led voter registration campaigns. For those of you who like to do voter reg work please contact your state and local Democratic Parties and offer to help them stand up their efforts in your community. It is another way members of our plucky, proud and patriotic community can help us win this fall and in 2026. Here’s some data from the 2024 Exit Polls that shows the impact this kind of aggressive voter registration campaign can have - Republicans beat us with first time voters in 2024, decisively.
One area I think we need to explore and test is whether launching a national “everyone is welcome” national voter registration drive that encourages people of all kinds to join our party will make our party more attractive, proximate to people and less distant and “elite.” Being open to all and hustling 24/7 to get people into our party could reinforce the “fighting for you,” “we the people” brand we all want to build for Democrats. In his terrific newsletter, Strength in Numbers, G. Elliott Morris has a new, in-depth look at these voter registration trends Tom discusses and adds an important wrinkle:
Lots to chew on in here, and I’ll add a bit more - I’ve put together the highlights of my post-election analysis and recommendations into a single page here on Hopium to make it easier to access. What follows is a piece of this analysis, my Top 7 2024 Takeaways, that I first published in January of this year (I will be updating it soon). It talks about the need for Democrats to once again get serious about partisan voter registration: 1 - It Was A Very Close Election, and We Had Important Wins - Trump won by 1.5 points and failed to reach 50%. 115,000 votes changing in MI, PA, WI and Harris wins. We picked up a seat in the House and were less than 4,000 votes from making Hakeem Jeffries Speaker. We had important downballot wins in AZ, NC, MI, NV, PA, WI. While we have work to do this was a narrow win not a landslide, and our road back is not insurmountable. I go deeper into all this here. 2 - Finding More Voters, Forging A New Majority - The dramatic gains Trump made with Latinos and young people (particularly young men) unraveled the coalition that had gotten us 51% of the vote on average over the last four Presidential elections. We will need to imagine and build a new majority coalition now and need a concerted party wide effort to make gains with voters of all kinds - working class, rural, Latinos, young men, etc. As part of this strategy we need to make partisan voter registration a core responsibility of the Democratic Party at all levels once again and not leave this important work to outside, non-partisan groups. 3 - Getting On The Right Side Of Opportunity/Winning The Big Economic Argument - As I wrote the other day, we need a deep and long conversation about how we can win the big economic argument with MAGA in the coming years. Three consecutive Dem Presidents have left the country far better than we found it. Three consecutive GOP Presidents have been economic and societal wrecking balls. We should not be losing the economic argument to these guys, or losing ground with working class voters given our economic track record. There needs to be urgency about finding a better path here, and it is very possible that Trump’s dangerous economic plans - tariffs, mass deportation, huge tax cuts for wealthy Americans, spending cuts for everyone else - will give us a big opportunity to make our case very soon (sure looks that way!!!). It is time now for Democrats to move beyond our flaccid and failed “prices are too high” narrative and 1) reconnect our economic arguments to opportunity and prosperity for all 2) tear into his reckless and dangerous economic agenda that is already raising prices, threatening our prosperity and betraying the central promises Trump made to working people in his campaign. 4 - Getting Louder/Building A 24/7/365 Politics - This is a familiar topic for Hopium readers, but there is real urgency here too. For background see my post-election posts on the need for us to get louder here, here, here, here and most recently this one on our need to get far smarter in how we strategically contest the right’s information superiority in our campaigns themselves. I am going to be talking a lot about the need to see the millions of people supporting our campaigns as “partners in the fight, not donors to the cause” and help unlock not just the financial or volunteer potential of our family but also its capacity to become information warriors and ferocious, effective amplifiers. As I wrote just after the Election getting louder is a central way we address the dangerous drop off in Democratic voters we’ve seen outside the battleground states in both the 2022 and 2024 elections, something Mike Podhorzer discussed in his recently published analysis. Finally, while we must build out a new pro-democracy media ecosystem, our electeds and Democratic Parties must have urgency, much greater urgency, about raising their comms game, getting louder and contesting the right’s information superiority 24/7/365. House and Senate Dems no longer have the White House or the Presidential campaign to carry the daily load, and are going to have to assume far greater responsibility for mobilizing the current capacities in our family, including the tens of thousands of elected Dems across the US, to aggressive contest MAGA, everyday. An example of how we have to be thinking now - Senate Dems should have launched a national effort with all allied groups to defeat Trump’s most unacceptable nominees - Gabbard, Hegseth, Kennedy, Patel. Thinking this can get done “in the hearings” is old think, dangerous old think. The Rs operate 24/7/365 movement wide and so must we. Millions of people and hundreds of groups are ready to go to work to challenge Trump 2.0. We need to put them to work (note, tragically, this did not happen). 5 - Develop And Advance A New Agenda Of Renewal and Reform - In a recent post I discussed the need for Democrats to develop a broad agenda for renewal and reform, a topic we’ve been discussing here for many months and one central to my February New Republic essay, Biden Must Reinvent What A Presidential Campaign Is. In this period of opposition we must not only oppose, but must also propose. Far too many voters see Washington as broken and corrupt. We have must have an agenda to speak to them, and use it to highlight the unprecedented illiberalism and corruption of MAGA (as above). 6 - While Focusing On Kitchen Table Issues, We Cannot Leave Behind The Harris-Walz Campaign’s Powerful Embrace of Freedom and Patriotism - We can both be focused on improving the lives of everyday Americans and lean hard into the powerful love of country themes the Vice President advanced during her campaign. This is particularly true in the fights for our personal freedoms and rights of all kinds including reproductive freedom. For example - Democratic leaders at all levels should be condemning loudly what NC Republicans are doing right now to overturn an election and disqualify the votes of the good people of the Tar Heel State. 7 - We Need To Talk About All These Corrosive Emails Telling Dems We Are Losing, Not Winning And Whether They Contributed To The Troubling Demobilization We Saw in 2024. Again, Democrats across the country need to be treated as “partners in the fight and not donors to the cause.” When folks ask why are Democratic voters and activists perpetually worried and anxious, it’s because the Party and our campaigns are doing everything they can to scare the crap out of everyone and tell them everything is terrible. We have to find a better way. Hopium is in a lower gear until September 2nd as I am away and trying to rest up for what is surely going to be a very intense fall. Hope you are getting time away with family and friends too. We need to hit the ground running on September 2nd. Now, let’s get to work everybody!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Our “Must Win/Everyone In” Races
Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025. For more on Hopium’s approach to elections check out 1) our big recommendations to the family coming out of the 2024 elections 2) the many important wins we had together last cycle 3) my latest thinking on where we are and the path forward for the Hopium community.
Our Recommended Actions - We are prioritizing three actions today. You can get our full list of recommended actions here. Let’s get to it: 1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - While it is recess we need to be loud this week, very, very loud. Make the case for our our emerging four part agenda, and demand they 1) Stand with Ukraine and work to block Trump’s selling out of the West to Putin 2) Roll back Trump’s terrible tariffs 3) Block the expansion of ICE and the use of the military on our streets including DC 4) End the war on science, higher education and the public health of the American people, and demand the removal of Bobby Kennedy (aka “the quack) from the leadership of HHS. 2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston, and offer advice on get a resolution passed in your own community. Remarkably, members of this community are now advancing 64 (!!!!) resolutions projects in 20 states. Can we get to all 50 states by the fall election? Our newly updated Resolutions Project page includes a new chat for folks to report in on their progress or seek counsel from those interested in launching a resolutions project in their community. This is one way to fight back against Trump’s unprecedented abandonment of our Constitutional order. Congratulations to Hopium community member Sarah Marshall whose resolution, “Town of Amherst Resolution in Support of Democracy and Calling for a Return to the Constitutional Principles that are the Foundation of our Republic,” passed the Amherst, Massachusetts town council last Monday night. 3 - Grow Hopium And This Wonderful Community Of Proud, Plucky, Patriots - We’ve set a goal of trying to grow the Hopium community from the 152,000 we are now to 175,000 by Election Day, 2025. Do what you can to encourage your friends, family and colleagues to become a summer subscriber to Hopium, free or paid. If each current paid subscriber brings in just one new subscriber this summer and fall we will hit our goal. To encourage the growth of our community annual paid subscriptions are 10% off through Labor Day. Use that link to buy gift or group subscriptions, and join our new referral rewards program too. A further note - if you want to up your support of Hopium a powerful way to do it is to buy group or gift subscriptions for others. Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Keep it up!!! As we get ready for what is going to be a very intense fall of politics a reminder from Robert Frost - that “the best way out is through” - Simon You're currently a free subscriber to Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.
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Monday, August 25, 2025
Democrats Need To Get Serious About Partisan Voter Registration - Some Notes And A Presentation From Tom Bonier
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