Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Benedict's Newsletter: No. 606

NO. 606   FREE EDITION   SUNDAY 24 AUG 2025
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My work

A new presentation: AI eats the world

Every year, I produce a big presentation exploring macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. New in May 2025, 'AI eats the world'. LINK

News

The Intel turnaround

Intel is at risk of falling off the cutting edge of Moore's Law, and probably needs $15-25bn that it does not have to get back. This week the US government took a 10% stake for $8.9bn, in the form of grants that had already been awarded under the (Biden) CHIPS Act but not yet paid. There won't be a board seat.

Broader context: Samsung is also at risk of falling off (though it does have money), and China's SIMC is of course trying to get there - so there's a real risk that either TSMC will have a monopoly, or that it will share one with China. Either outcome would be bad both for the tech industry (most obviously, what happens to prices?) and for the strategic security of the USA. After that, nothing is clear - most of all, does Intel still give up on SOTA, and if not, how much more money does it need, where from, and how does a government stake change that? LINK

OpenAI India

OpenAI is launching a cut-price, cut-down version of ChatGPT5 in India for ₹399/month (~$4.5). There are 6-700m smartphone users in India, and every consumer tech company wants to be there. LINK

Prompt injection

Brave, the browser company, discovered that the AI sidebar in Perplexity's Comet browser is vulnerable to prompt injection, which means that a web page you visit could contain text that tells Comet to use Gmail to pass on your bank details, and it would do that. The indeterministic nature of LLMs makes prompt injection a fascinating problem that's surprisingly hard to fix. LINK

FreeGPT for the Feds

Google and OpenAI are both now giving employees of US federal agencies access for the next year for a nominal fee (whether those employees have a PC or internet access is another problem). There are lots of land-grabs going on right now - see also the India story. GOOGLE, OPENAI

Apple Gemini?

Apple is apparently looking at using some form of Google's Gemini. This might mean actually powering new features (i.e. the much-delayed rebuild of Siri), or might just be an alternative to the existing ChatGPT integration, which works much like having Google as default search in Safari. It's very likely that this year a judge will order Google to stop paying Apple a ~$20bn revenue share to be search default: it would be hilarious if that was replaced by a $20bn deal to be Apple's chatbot default. LINK

Meta AI

Meta is still working out the new AI strategy - after spending hundreds of millions of dollars (or more?) to poach researchers from competitors, it's also now doing a licensing deal with Midjourney. LINK

And, it's also apparently done a deal to use Google Cloud, worth $10bn over six years. LINK

Amazon blocking bots

Amazon is now blocking AI scraping from Meta, Google and other LLM systems, which means they won't send purchasing traffic to Amazon (or will send less), but also means they won't have access to all of that SKU-level data and reviews about products. LINK

The UK backs down on Apple back doors

Earlier this year it was reported that the UK was demanding (in secret) that Apple provide a back door to encrypted user data. This is a bad idea in general, but bizarrely it also emerged that the UK was trying to get this not just for users in the UK, where at least there is jurisdiction, but for all Apple customers globally. Apple reacted by pulling the product from the UK and going to court, but this week Trump's director of national intelligence said that the UK has backed down.

I have far more sympathy than most people in tech for the reasons that intelligence agencies and law enforcement would like to read terrible messages from terrible people, but it was always untenable for the UK to try to order Apple to let UK spies read the messages of Americans in America - no US administration would be relaxed about that. LINK

About
What matters in tech? What's going on, what might it mean, and what will happen next?

I've spent 25 years analysing mobile, media and technology, and worked in equity research, strategy, consulting and venture capital. I'm now an independent analyst, and I speak and consult on strategy and technology for companies around the world.

Ideas

How screwed is Intel, why, and what does it need? Probably $15-25bn to get back onto Moore's Law. LINK

A paper trying to work out how LLMs make product recommendations. LINK

Netflix released guidance for its suppliers on how it does and does not want them to use generative AI. LINK

The New Scientist used a FOI request to get access to the current UK tech minister's ChatGPT history. LINK

Bloomberg on how Oracle's cloud became more than a joke. LINK

A documentary on the industry smuggling Nvidia chips into China. LINK

John Collison, co-founder of Stripe, in a video podcast with Dario Amodei, founder of Anthropic. Interesting in its own right, but it also occurs to me that quite a lot of the insider conversations that happened on Twitter a decade ago are now happening in video podcasts instead, where you can't have interesting input from new people, but you also don't have people screaming at you. (Much of the rest of those conversations are now on private text chats). LINK

Outside interests

The designer of the James Bond 007 logo dies, aged 103. LINK

Nine ways to 'fix' the best ad of the 20th century. LINK

The Library of Things. LINK

Shelter. LINK

Data

Google released a detailed study of its energy use for LLM inference - running the models (as opposed to training). This is a topic where a lot of people are vague, or indeed just make up numbers, so it's good to have something solid. Key points: Gemini is currently averaging about 0.24 Wh of electricity per text query (equivalent to about 9 seconds of running a TV set), and that's reduced by 33x (!) in the last 12 months. LINK

Databricks is the latest $100bn private company. This is not a healthy long-term approach to funding. LINK

OpenAI now has $1bn monthly revenue. LINK

30% of US ad spend is now made directly by the advertiser, up from less than 10% in 2019. LINK

Preview from the Premium edition

When efficiency is bad 

A long time ago, I heard a story about OpenTable trying to launch in Spain. Apparently, they went to a whole bunch of family-owned restaurants and said, "Would you like a system that will give you a perfectly accurate record of all of your cash flow?" and the restaurants said, "Thank you very much, but no, we wouldn't." 

I had a similar experience a few years ago talking to somebody working on NFTs, who proposed that the fine art market would love to have a system that gave them perfect price transparency and liquidity: you don't have to know very much about the art world to understand that nobody in that market wants any of that at all. 

THIS IS A PREVIEW FROM THE PREMIUM EDITION - PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS GET THE COMPLETE COLUMN EVERY WEEK. YOU SHOULD UPGRADE.

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