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Did the Republicans Just Blow Up the Trump Coalition?

The Republican Budget bill is the same old GOP policies, but now the people that get hurt are their voters

Dan Pfeiffer

Jul 3

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The House Republicans just passed the monstrosity of a bill that will cut taxes for billionaires and corporations, kick 17 million people off their health insurance, eliminate food assistance to at least 3 million Americans, jeopardize school meal access for more than 18 million children, and add more than $3 trillion in debt. It will make a recession more likely, inflation last longer, and raise costs on approximately 80 million Americans.

The bill was poorly constructed, cruel, and unpopular. Almost none of the House Republicans who voted for the bill have read the text and not one of them seriously considered the consequences.

The fact that so many lied and voted against the interests of their constituents is a sad reality of one of the two parties in our two-party system. The bill is now headed to Trump’s desk for his signature and will become law.

This is the least popular piece of major legislation passed since the advent of polling nearly a century ago. But how does this vote impact Republican chances in the midterms? It certainly doesn’t help! It’s impossible to imagine that passing a total piece of shit bill that no one wants (and even most Republicans are ambivalent about) won’t hurt them. Earlier this week, I speculated that it could cost them the Senate despite a very pro-Republican map.

However, this bill could be a much bigger deal than just one election. It has the potential to break Trump’s coalition and reshape the electorate to benefit Democrats for several elections to come.

The Big Ugly Bill could be a vote that Republicans come to regret for a generation.

Let me explain.

Hurting the Poor to Help the Rich

This budget bill is massive. It deals with health care, taxes, energy policy, immigration, and military spending. It’s filled with boondoggles and pork barrel projects to buy votes from members who said they would never vote for a bill like this. The complexity is a feature, not a bug, for the Republicans trying to jam the bill down the American people’s throat. It’s been hard to focus sufficient attention on any one terrible element of the bill.

However, the simplest way to understand the bill is that it’s a massive transfer of wealth from the poorest Americans. The tax cuts overwhelmingly benefit the wealthiest and corporations and they are (partially) paid for by slashing funding for health care and food assistance utilized by the poor and working class...