Tuesday, July 1, 2025

Benedict's Newsletter: No. 598

NO. 598   FREE EDITION   SUNDAY 29 JUN 2025
SPONSORED BY SLACK
Stop Wasting Time: Break Down Knowledge Silos with AI

In today's fast-paced tech landscape, inefficient knowledge sharing isn't just an inconvenience—it's costing businesses millions and slowing projects to a crawl. Employees are spending nearly two hours a day hunting for information across a fragmented app landscape, hindering productivity and collaboration. Discover how Slack's enterprise search can bring all your company's data together securely, ensuring your team has real-time access to the information they need, right where they're already working.

Learn more and download now to empower your team to work smarter, not harder.

My work

A new presentation: AI eats the world

Every year, I produce a big presentation exploring macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. New in May 2025, 'AI eats the world'. LINK

AI Metrics

With every platform shift, we want to measure the growth but we're confused about what to measure. That's partly a problem of data and definitions, but it's really a question about what this is going to be. LINK

News

Training on books

The big story this week is a pair of US copyright rulings over AI training data, which both held that training LLMs on books per se is not a breach of US copyright but covered by 'fair use', since the material in the books is not being redistributed. There is some nuance: the first case was against Anthropic, which has both downloaded a repository of pirated books (mostly just for speed and convenience) and then bought and scanned millions of books itself, and Meta has also downloaded the same repository. The piracy is a separate issue, but actually buying a book and then uploading it into a system that learns from it but does not hand out copies does not (also far) appear to breach US law. Other countries have other laws, of course, and can change them. ANTHROPIC SUMMARY, META SUMMARY, META, ANTHROPIC

The week in AI

Google launched CLI, its answer to the AI coding boom. LINK

Meta is rich, but not as rich as the field it's running with for AI capex: having raised its 2025 capex guidance to '$64-$72bn', it's now talking to private equity to raise $29bn. LINK

Buzzy / inflammatory startup of the week - Cluely explicitly pitches itself as the AI app for 'cheating' - it runs on your computer in the background, watching and making suggestions, including to your Zoom calls (without being visible to the people you're speaking to, which could technically be illegal in a bunch of places). It just raised from a16z. LINK

OpenAI/Microsoft breakups

Microsoft saw OpenAI early and did a partnership deal… but what does it get back, beyond more Azure sales? OpenAI wants compute, cash and distribution from Microsoft and doesn't want to give anything. It's building its own productivity software, second-sourcing from Google for infrastructure and working on a $500bn infra plan ('Stargate') of its own, while withholding technical information from Microsoft. And Microsoft has been building its own models, but so far can't get into the top 100 in the leader boards and can't get its AI ASIC to work. And it seems pretty clear that Sam Altman wants OpenAI to be the next Google, not a tech provider to Microsoft. That means a lot of pain and a lot of leaks.

Meanwhile, the terms of the deal hinge on whether OpenAI can achieve AGI, but AGI is a thought experiment, not a specific technology you can define in court, and 'ASI' is close to meaningless - so it looks like Sam Altman plans to declare AGI, or ASI, and try to walk away from the deal, or use it for leverage, or… something. I hope Jony Ive is paying attention. RIVALRY, OFFICE, AGI & ASI, CHIPS

China eats cars

I'm old enough to remember when Xiaomi was just another Android OEM (albeit a cool one), but now it has a SUV crossover aimed at the Tesla Model Y. LINK

Adult content age checks

The UK will require age verification from adult content sites (the range of permitted verification services is interesting) and the US Supreme Court decided that legal requirements for such checks are constitutional. Meanwhile, Apple will offer an age check API in this years' OS releases. OFCOM, SUPREME COURT, APPLE

About
What matters in tech? What's going on, what might it mean, and what will happen next?

I've spent 25 years analysing mobile, media and technology, and worked in equity research, strategy, consulting and venture capital. I'm now an independent analyst, and I speak and consult on strategy and technology for companies around the world.

Ideas

Reading the hints - the first device from OpenAI/Jony Ive won't be an "in-ear device" or a "wearable." LINK

McKinsey on LLMs as a tool for scientific research. LINK

WhatsApp promises to India that ads won't be bad. Reminder: India is Meta's biggest market. LINK

Good thoughts on LLM effects on commerce from Jason Goldberg at Publicis. LINK

Outside interests

LLM recipe generator. LINK

The Maillet Daguerreotype collection. LINK

Abandoned blogs. LINK

An AI-generated band with 300k Spotify listeners. LINK

The Sahara Railway. LINK

Data

There's a lot of fascinating data on LLM use, and how it changes search behaviour, in the UK competition authority's analysis of Google. LINK

Replit has reached $100m ARR, up from $10m at the end of 2024. LINK

Preview from the Premium edition

Automating associates

I always used to describe machine learning as giving you 'infinite interns.' You always wanted to listen to every call coming into your call centre to know which customers were nervous, or angry, or to look at every credit card transaction to see which were weird, but you couldn't possibly have enough people and computers couldn't do that - now you can. You can recognise anything that an intern could recognise - or perhaps, anything a dog could do. 

Now LLMs take this a step further - they can create, not just recognise, and perhaps with agents they can do things that are a lot more complex. But again, this is acceleration on one axis: it's a lot of 25-year-olds, but not a partner or a VP. 

The obvious question lots of people ask at this is to wonder about career paths: if you don't need so many associates, where will the partners and VP of the future come from? A lot of careers begin with a couple of years...

THIS IS A PREVIEW FROM THE PREMIUM EDITION - PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS GET THE COMPLETE COLUMN EVERY WEEK. YOU SHOULD UPGRADE.

Upgrade to Premium
You're getting the Free edition. Subscribers to the Premium edition got this two days ago on Sunday evening, together with an exclusive column, complete access to the archive of over 500 issues, and more.
 

No comments:

Post a Comment

January 25, 2026

As the nation mourned the killing of VA ICU nurse Alex Pretti yesterday at the hands of federal officials in Minneapolis, President Donald J...