Sunday, March 2, 2025

Digging into VC's up (AI) and downs

Plus: PE's giants are breaking new ground, golden handcuffs hold VC back & more
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The Weekend Pitch
March 2, 2025
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(Drew Sanders/PitchBook News)
Upfront Ventures' annual industry confab in Los Angeles has long done its best to bring VCs and LPs together, but this year the eagerness from GPs was palpable at the cavernous Intuit Dome in Inglewood.

The state of the venture market permeated virtually every discussion, both on and off the stage, as both groups of investors expressed a mix of optimism and sober reality checks.

With the free booze flowing, investors were buzzed on AI hype, even as fears of an eventual correction have well and truly set in.

We're Rosie Bradbury and Kia Kokalitcheva, and this is The Weekend Pitch. You can reach us at rosie.bradbury@pitchbook.com or kia.kokalitcheva@pitchbook.com.
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Trivia

Thoma Bravo closed its inaugural European-focused fund to make investments in mid-market software companies across the continent. How much did the firm raise for its first Europe fund?

A) €1.7 billion
B) €1.1 billion
C) €2.3 billion
D) €1.8 billion

Find your answer at the bottom of The Weekend Pitch!

Big Seven giants
are breaking new ground

Our latest US Public PE and GP Deal Roundup covers the record-breaking dealmaking among the seven major US-listed alternative managers in 2024. The Big Seven saw a notable shift from GP stakes to control investments as GP consolidation drove total deal value to an all-time high of $47.6 billion.

The alternative managers also fetched strong returns within their private credit platforms and made significant strides in their perpetual capital strategies—which now account for $1.6 trillion in assets, another record high. This growth represents the increasing importance of the wealth channel, offering capital pools that aren't constrained by the typical decade-long fund life.
get the report
 
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VC valuations'
golden handcuffs

(Inok/Getty Images)
VCs and startups are still reluctant to swallow a valuation discount in a liquidity event, according to our 2024 Annual US VC Valuations Report. The golden handcuffs of the VCs behind overvalued companies are holding back IPOs, even after the Fed made three consecutive interest rate cuts.

You'd think that we'd be seeing downward pressure on valuations, but AI startups are keeping VCs satiated: In 2024, nearly 50% of all deals valued over $500 million were for AI companies. But can the pace continue through 2025?
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Quote/Unquote

(Drew Sanders/PitchBook News)
"These companies, they've figured out cost structures, stayed alive longer, which means they're probably profitable and they need liquidity—'Well here I am, Apollo, KKR, Blackstone, this is what you've done in mining and oil for decades. How is gaming so different from oil and gas?"

—Josh Chapman, managing partner at Konvoy, discussing piqued interest from private equity firms in making acquisitions in the gaming space. After hitting an eight-year low, exits in gaming may finally be making a rebound..
 

Stay tuned

Keep an eye out for these insights and research reports coming out this week:
  • 2024 Annual Global Private Market Fundraising Report
  • Q4 2024 Insurtech Report
  • Q4 2024 E-commerce Report
  • 2025 Nordic Private Capital Breakdown
  • Q4 2024 Germany Snapshot
  • February 2025 Global Markets Snapshot
 

Trivia

Answer: D. Thoma Bravo raised €1.8 billion (around $1.9 billion) for its first Europe-focused fund, beating its target of €1.5 billion. You can read more about the fund and private equity investments across Europe here.
 

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This edition of The Weekend Pitch was written by Kia Kokalitcheva, Rosie Bradbury and Jacob Robbins. It was edited by Heather West and Ron Prichard.

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