After The Dem Convention - Optimism, Love Of Country, Going On Offense, Expanding Our Coalition - My Latest Take O…

Watch now (64 mins) | We Gather Thursday Night To Call And Postcard for Josh Riley (NY-19) - Join Us!

͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­

	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more   Watch now   After The Dem Convention - Optimism, Love Of Country, Going On Offense, Expanding Our Coalition - My Latest Take On The 2024 Election (Video) We Gather Thursday Night To Call And Postcard for Josh Riley (NY-19) - Join Us! Simon Rosenberg Aug 28   READ IN APP   Happy Wednesday all. Our paid subscribers gathered last night, and I send along a video recording of my talk and the question and answer session, above. We had a great crowd, and Hopium was in abundance! Please watch and share with others you think might be interested. This is a very exciting time for our politics, and so much is possible for us now. From Politico this morning: THE DEMS WENT DOWN TO GEORGIA — Later today, Harris and running mate TIM WALZ kick off their first post-convention campaign swing in southeast Georgia. The trip is a bit surprising on multiple levels. For starters, it’s sending a firm message that the Peach State is in play. We’ll just gently remind y’all that wasn’t the case a little more than a month ago, when many Democrats (including some on what was then the JOE BIDEN campaign) had all but written the state off. As Myah Ward writes this morning, sinking time, money and human resources into Georgia is a high-risk, high-reward strategy for Harris but one that is being hailed by the state’s Democrats. As Rep. NIKEMA WILLIAMS (D-Ga.) put it: “Coming to Georgia is an affirmation that we are still a battleground state, we are still in this.” But also consider just where exactly Harris and Walz will be spending time today and tomorrow — a bus tour through southeast Georgia culminating in a rally tomorrow in Savannah. The conventional wisdom is that Democrats win elections in Atlanta and its growing and diversifying suburbs. Not so, says QUENTIN FULKS, the campaign’s principal deputy campaign manager. He’s a rural Georgia native — and the architect of Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK’s winning 2022 campaign in the state, where the strategy was not only to win big in the Atlanta metro, but to work hard to lose by less in other parts of the state. It’s a playbook that Fulks is now trying to run for Harris after being frustrated for years that his party has been “ceding” voters to Republicans — including Black voters who constitute about a quarter of Georgia’s rural population. “You have to really stave down margins and go places even when you don't think you can win it outright,” Fulks told Playbook yesterday. “You know you're going to lose that county, but just showing up there can sometimes be the difference between 5 to 10 percentage points, or sometimes just putting an office there.” NOT JUST GEORGIA: Harris’ team is looking to pursue a similar margins-focused strategy in other battleground states such as Pennsylvania — where Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN and Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO handily outperformed national Democrats in rural counties — and especially in North Carolina, which looks demographically a lot like Georgia. The Tar Heel State’s rural counties could be the key to Democrats unlocking its 16 electoral votes for the first time since 2008, when BARACK OBAMA drove up Black turnout to record levels and held down defections among rural white voters. As NBC’s Steve Kornacki unpacked yesterday, there are 17 North Carolina counties with a Black population of at least 35 percent. Obama won them in 2008 by 15.5 points in the aggregate, while Biden won them by only 11.2 points in 2020: “Whether Harris posts an Obama- or Biden-like margin in these counties could end up being the decisive question in North Carolina.” Harris, to be sure, still needs to count on favorable demographic trends (i.e. growth in cities and suburbs) and a turnout advantage to win both Georgia and North Carolina. But she is sending a message by traveling the backroads and building infrastructure there (seven offices with 50 staff members in south Georgia alone), and it’s not just Democrats who are noticing. “We see them putting resources in Forsyth County, a heavily Republican county,” GOP operative BRIAN ROBINSON told us last night. “[Some] Republicans are sort of confused: “Why are they wasting this money?’ And I'm like, they're not trying to win Forsyth County. They're trying to cut the margins.” SENDING A MESSAGE: While casting a wide net for votes is a simple enough campaign strategy, it happens to fit in with Harris’ broader political thinking going back years. In April 2022, Eugene explored her developing obsession with traveling off the beaten path for a national Democrat, making trips to places like Greenville, South Carolina; Brandywine, Maryland; and Sunset, Louisiana. At the time, it was about reaching Americans that she talked about as being left behind by the federal government. She frequently rattled off mentions of Black, Brown, Native and rural communities while pushing for rural broadband and other initiatives. Now, a rural bus tour is an acknowledgement that Harris and Walz have multiple new paths to winning 270 electoral votes compared to the Biden campaign. And since they are having no trouble whatsoever filling arenas in big, blue swing-state cities like Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, a country diversion or two suddenly doesn’t seem like such a waste of time. Robinson has his doubts as to whether it will work. But he also understands why they are doing it. “It's not just about the voters in South Georgia they touch,” he said. “It's about the visual that goes to the rest of America of her being in the community, of her wanting to connect with rural America. … I think there's a symbolic push that goes well beyond the hands she shakes.” It has been central to our understanding of this election cycle that the Republicans’ doubling down on a losing, extremist politics - MAGA - meant more was possible for us this year than was usually the case. As I wrote in my very first memo this cycle, Get to 55: Expanding Our Coalition, The Youth Opportunity I felt we needed to approach this election with an expansion mindset, go on offense, and strive to take geographic and demographic terrain away from the Rs that was available to us now, particularly since Dobbs. We did this once before as a party, back in the Obama era. In the four Presidential elections prior to Obama’s 2008 run we averaged 47% of the vote. Obama explicitly built his Presidential campaign in 2008 with the intent to expand our coalition, particularly with the fastest growing parts of the electorate, young people and Hispanics. In the four Presidential elections since 2008, 2008 to 2020, we’ve averaged 51% of the vote, 4 points higher than 1992-2004. It’s been our best showing over 4 Presidential elections since FDR’s four Presidential elections from 1932 to 1944. This data is a central reason I keep saying “The Democratic Party is strong” - because we are. In 2022 we Democrats once again reached high, defied history, prevented a red wave from washing across the land, and did something that parties in power seldom do - we gained ground. We picked up a Senate seat, 4 state legislative chambers, 2 governorships. We kept the House close enough to make it far easier to win it this year, and denied Kevin McCarthy ideological control, leading to all sorts of ugly MAGA chaos and dysfunction. We got to 59% in CO, 57% in PA, 55% in MI, 54% in NH. In a year that was supposed to be a disaster for us, we outperformed 2020, an election we won by 4.5 points, in AZ, CO, GA MI, MN, NH and PA. In 2023 and 2024 we’ve continued to defy history, have repeatedly overperformed expectations and polling and have again and again taken stuff away from Republicans. We took away the Wisconsin Supreme seat back in April of 2023 and ended their outrageous gerrymander of the state. We took away Jacksonsville and Colorado Springs, CO, two of the largest Republican held cities in the country. We took away the six week abortion ban in Ohio. We’ve taken away state legislative seats, municipalities, city council and school board seats all across the country. Despite Glenn Youngkin’s big spending, we took away the Virginia Assembly and elected the first Black Speaker in Virginia’s 400 year history. We picked up state legislative seats in New Jersey and Governor Beshear grew his margin of victory in his re-election in Kentucky. We took away NY-3 by a rollicking 8 points earlier this year, and took away Tulsa, Oklahoma last night. Due to their extremism more is possible for us now, and if keep working hard, as we’ve been doing all across the country these last few years, we can keep growing our coalition and keep taking stuff away from them. Vice President Harris and her campaign clearly understand the opportunity that is in front of us now. The pick of Coach Walz was a clear sign the Vice President wanted people from small towns and rural areas, places often hard for Democrats to reach, to feel valued and included in her campaign and Administration. The overt appeal to disaffected Republicans that was so central to the Convention last week was another sign of the Harris campaign’s intent to expand our coalition this year, and take stuff away from them. In my Get to 55 memo I talk about three other potential growth targets for us this year - younger voters, Hispanic voters, and those influenced by Republican abortion extremism (yes there is some overlap here). Well look at what our good friend Tom Bonier has found in the 13 states which have released voter registration data in recent weeks: On Twitter Tom wrote: The Harris Effect - in the 13 states that have updated voter files since July 21st, we are seeing incredible surges in voter registration relative to the same time period in 2024, driven by women, voters of color, and young voters. Young Black women are leading the way, seeing their registration almost triple, relative to the same point in 2020. Young Hispanic women aren't far behind, with a 150% increase in registration. Black women overall have almost doubled their registration numbers from 2020. These changes are, unsurprisingly, substantially to the benefit of Democrats. Democratic registration has increased by over 50%, as compared to only 7% for Republicans. These new registrants are modeled as +20 pts Dem, as compared to +6 during the same week in 2020. Folks so much more is possible for us now. It’s why we have to keep doing the work. We can grow our coalition in these closing days by reaching new demographic and geographic targets, and driving up our performance with more traditional parts of our coalition. We can, and must, do both. And that is what your work is about. It’s about in this magical moment, where so much is possible for us now, reaching out and touching as many people as possible, welcoming them into our coalition, and together making this election a clear repudiation of the dangerous extremism of Trump and MAGA. The touches you do - postcards, calls, texting, canvassing, info warring - is a message of welcome, that the person you are reaching is valued, that you care about them, and want them to be part of our winning and wonderful team. In this exciting moment when folks are open to us, interested in us, these touches can cement the support of Harris-Walz and Democrats up and down the ballot. It is why we must work so hard now - for the return on our work has never been higher, or the results more important. Let’s keep working as hard as we can and get to 55 this November for our freedoms, for our our democracy and for our future. So much is possible now. Let’s leave it all on the playing field in these closing days, together and enjoy my talk on this exciting election from last night! Upgrade to paid Thursday Night Postcarding and Phonebanking for Josh Riley (NY-19) - We are back at it tomorrow at 730pm ET for a night of work for a great House candidate from New York, Josh Riley. You can register for our event here, and note when doing so you can now select which breakout room you want to join. We have trainings for both activities live each evening, and for those who are more experienced you can a select a breakout room without training and just get to work. Visit here to learn more about ordering postcards for these events. Each week we will be reaching our to core Democratic voters and encouraging them to Vote on Day 1 and letting them know when early in person and mail/drop box voting begins in their states. Most weeks we will hear directly from the candidate at the beginning of our session, just a few minutes after 730pm so plan on joining us on time each week. At the end of each session, after we’ve done our work, I will be providing a 10 minute overview of the current national political landscape. So in addition to helping out on Thursdays you will be getting live political updates from the ground and from Washington, DC. To prep for Thursday watch my interview with Josh. You can learn more about him, donate or volunteer too. If you want to make a single donation to all 11 of our courageous candidates working to flip the House this November you can do that here. In just a few months the Hopium community has raised almost $1m for these great candidates in the districts most likely to turn from red to blue. We could use a few more phonebankers tomorrow night so if can give us a shift I would be really grateful. In the spirit of not letting up, “doing something” as Michelle Obama said and leaving it all on the playing field as Gov Walz has encouraged, I again make my pitch for the candidates and state parties we’ve been working for this year. A week ago Saturday I offered an in-depth post on the strategy behind our candidate and state party endorsements, including our Presidential battleground “check” and “checkmate” strategy. 22 days to go before early in voting begins everybody - time to get to work! Harris-Walz!!!!!! - $892,000 raised, $1m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel - Let’s make this a big week people! Winning The House - $914,000 raised, $1m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More. Watch our recent discussion with Leader Hakeem Jeffries. To go deeper catch one of our interviews with our great candidates - Janelle Bynum (OR-5), George Whitesides (CA-27), Kirsten Engel (AZ-06) Will Rollins (CA-41), Laura Gillen (NY-04), Rudy Salas (CA-22), Josh Riley (NY-19), Tony Vargas (NE-02) and Adam Gray (CA-13). North Carolina - $409,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $335,000 raised, $400,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego Nebraska/Blue Dot - $152,000 raised, $175,000 goal- Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb Here are ways you can do even more: Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting begins in three states on September 20th - just 22 days away! Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party and this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election. Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can you update your payment information or check your renewal status follow these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing the Hopium flowing! Keep working hard all. It’s how we win - Simon Upgrade to paid Leave a comment Share You're currently a free subscriber to Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. Upgrade to paid   Like Comment Restack   © 2024 Simon Rosenberg 5185 MacArthur Blvd, NW #600, Washington, DC 20016 Unsubscribe