Voters in Europe, The UK and France Just Denied The Far Right Power. It's Our Turn NowJoin Me And Anderson Clayton In Raleigh, North Carolina This Friday!
Happy Wednesday all. Only more 2 days of the Republican Convention! Got a few things for you today….. Hopium community member Roger Poulard dropped this note on our paid subscriber chat last night responding to a link I shared from Biden-Harris about needing volunteers:
Community member TCash added this:
Community member ArcticStones added this:
VP Harris released this short video ahead of JD Vance’s speech tonight:  We now have a few days of polling after the events of the weekend and the race remains remarkably stable, close and competitive (all polls can be found on 538). Biden remains 2 points down on 538’s average. The Congressional Generic is back in positive territory and has been encouraging for us these past few weeks. Senate polling continues to hold. We’ve had polls this week with Biden up in MI and WI and down just 2 in NC. As we discussed yesterday, JD Vance may be good for Trump’s fundraising, but he is not good for him electorally. The 538 forecast this morning has Biden at 277. Here’s the current battleground in the 538 forecast:
Here’s the RNC Chair yesterday saying “there is no red wave.” For there isn’t, and Rs got heavily burned by their bullshit polls and wishful thinking in 2022. The election is remarkably stable, close and competitive, with Trump, perhaps, having a slight advantage. Commentators on television suggesting otherwise are operating outside the data available to us today.
From my read over the last few weeks the Trump campaign understands they have a lot of work to do to win. After publicly dissing her they clumsily gave Nikki Haley a Convention speaking slot at the last minute because they don’t have her voters locked up. They’ve kept Trump off the campaign trail because every time he speaks his idiocy, extremism and craziness hurts the campaign. They know that selling a rapist, fraudster, traitor and felon to the American people is no easy thing. They have to lie about Biden’s Presidency because they know how successful it has been - that the economy is booming, the stock market setting records, inflation dropping, crime is way way down and flows to the border are now the lowest they’ve been during the Biden Presidency. They sold the VP pick to Silicon Valley because they needed the money. They’ve tried to bury their extremism and run from Project 2025. They know we’ve won more votes in 7 of the past 8 Presidential elections. They know that we’ve averaged 51% in the last 4 Presidential elections, our best showing since FDR’s 4 elections and that this is a center-left country today. They know they are not at 270 Electoral College votes in current polling. They know that when voters have voted in these last 2 years since Dobbs they keep underperforming and struggling, and we keep winning and overperforming. They know the power of American women and the Democratic grassroots. They know the abortion ballot initiatives could cost them a few critical points in critical battleground states. They know the far right flamed out in the European, French and UK elections. They know NeverTrumpers remain a big threat to their ability to win the election.
And they know that the guy who tried to kill Trump is almost certainly one of theirs and a very public confirmation of the threat their radical politics is to the country. From Newsweek this morning (and this has been confirmed by other news outlets):
Not only I am optimistic we can win this thing based on current data and my assessment of the landscape but because of the “margin of effort” all of you are putting in. As a fellow citizen I remain deeply inspired by your commitment, love of country, grit and willingness to just put your head down and do the work required for us to win.
But our party today is not united as we need it to be. There remains deep concern about the President’s ability to go out and win the election given his struggles of late. This concern is not just being expressed by some party leaders (who by the way know how to win elections in tough places) but based on current polling is shared by tens of millions of Democrats themselves. As I said in my video to you a few days ago (above), I am optimistic we can win this November; but if the President is going to win he is going to need to do far more to assuage the legitimate doubts many Democrats have about his candidacy, and all of us will have to come together soon - for a divided, fractious Democratic Party will lose the 2024 election. My ongoing advice to this community is to approach these coming days with respect - respect of the President, our nominee; respect of party leaders who are working to ensure that we can win the election; and respect of one another who today are not all on the same page. For those of you backing the President telling your fellow Democrats who continue to have doubts to stop it and get in line is counter-productive, insulting and corrosive. For those of you wanting the President to step aside recognize that the most likely scenario is that our ticket remains Biden-Harris and attacking him wounds him at a time we need to be building him and the Vice-President up. This current moment is not easy for us given the stakes but as I asked in my video think of yourself here as a leader, not just a citizen. Lead the party forward, show respect of views different than yours and work to bring us together not push us apart. Do the hard thing here not the easy thing. And the hard thing is to resist fighting with fellow Dems, publicly, right now, and keep putting our heads down and working; and commit to bring us all together as we head into our Convention in a few weeks. The only way we win is if we stay together. I want to be very clear at what I am saying here. The doubts about the President’s capacity to lead us now is a serious matter. In the Washington Post poll released last week which had the race at 46-46, 56% of Democrats wanted the President to step aside for another candidate. This data is consistent with data from other polls in the last few weeks.
If the President cannot get this number down, way down, I think it will be very difficult for us to win the election this November. He is the President, and the leader of our Party. It is his responsibility to bring us together, to demonstrate that he can lead us successfully against this fascist threat. Perhaps his media appearances over the past few weeks, the ongoing encouraging economic news, his successful leadership of the NATO Summit, the shock of the ugliness of the GOP Convention and his confident and strong leadership in the aftermath of an assassination attempt of a former President has already started assuaging these concerns. But we are not where we want to be right now, have a lot of hard work ahead of us and we are not the “my way or the highway” party. That’s them. We are the bring everyone together, listen to each other respectfully, expand our coalition and go out kick MAGA’s ass party. It is why I hope this weekend the President and his team to do one more final assessment of the political landscape given the tumult of the past few weeks, review the latest data, talk one more time to party leaders, and perhaps most importantly, do one more final assessment of whether an 81 year old man who has been struggling a bit can, in the next four months, be both the President of the United States in a very challenging time and a successful candidate for President in a race we are not winning right now. If the answer is yes I will be all in and work as I have, with all of you, to go win this thing for our democracy, our freedoms and our future. And if the President chooses to pass the baton I will be all in and work as I have, with all of you, to go win this thing for our democracy, our freedoms and our future. I am proud of my President, proud of my party, and oh so proud to be in this fight with all of you. Let’s keep working hard everyone and commit to bring our party back together and go out defeat the fascists one more time. Voters in Europe, France and the UK just did their job. It’s our turn now.
Making July Count/We Cannot Let Up/Do More and Worry Less - Friends, we just did a remarkable job together here making June count. In five weeks from late May to June 30th we raised over $1m for our candidates and party committees. Many of you have been out there hustling for candidates, writing postcards, canvassing, calling and texting. We launched our Winning the House campaign which brought in more $500,000 for our 12 Hopium-endorsed candidates with the best opportunity to flip seats and help us take back the House. We added the blue dot in Nebraska to our “checkmate” state strategy, one designed to get us to 270 electoral college votes and win the election. We raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for Biden-Harris, including more than $100,000 in the days after the debate. When called once again the Hopium community answered. That’s why we’ve launched a new campaign to “Make July Count” with new July 31st fundraising goals. We cannot let up now, not for a moment. We are deep into the 2024 election and while it is summer, and we are not all on same page today, we cannot stop working to make the election everything we want it to be. So please do something this week to support this new campaign, and be on the look out for many more interviews of our endorsed House candidates in the coming days. Trying to get the remaining eight done by our Convention. We can do this people!
Here’s how you can do even more:
Finally help me spread Hopium and grow this plucky community. Sign others up to be a Hopium subscriber at this link. Note that options for group and gift subscriptions are available to those who want to bring friends and colleagues into the Hopium community. Click on the group and gift tabs here to learn more. To update your payment information or check your renewal status follow these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep the Hopium flowing and our community growing! Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon You're currently a free subscriber to Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.
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Wednesday, July 17, 2024
Voters in Europe, The UK and France Just Denied The Far Right Power. It's Our Turn Now
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