The Far Right Underperforms in Europe (Again), New Biden Ad, Legit Questions About Biden's Health, No Letting UpWelcome new subscribers! Consequential weeks of politics ahead
Happy Monday all. Back from a July 4th break on the Delaware shore. The weather was great, I got a lot of biking and eating in, flew my flag right-side up and got some rest. Hope everyone here rested up too for we have a lot of politics coming at us very fast now - NATO Summit, Trump’s VP pick, the GOP Convention, the debate over Biden’s candidacy and more. Let’s get to it: Some Toplines:
 The Far Right Underperforms in France This Weekend, As It Has Throughout Europe This Summer - Lots of evidence that voters in the West understand the stakes in our politics today, and when it comes time to vote they keep voting against fascism. In recent years we’ve seen this recurring pattern of the MAGA/Putinist far-right underperforming public polling both here in the US and in Europe. That when it came to actually voting - not just answering a poll - voters just couldn’t end up voting for the fascists and chose something better. This insight - that fear and opposition to the threat of the far right is the most powerful force in American politics today - is at the very core of our work and understandings here at Hopium. The American people rejected MAGA in 2018 and 2020, and has been doing so at a remarkable and historically anomalous level in elections across the US since Dobbs. Like in Europe, polls here have been consistently overestimating the right’s strength (red wave), and Democrats have overperformed polls and expectations again and again. We even saw it with Trump this year in the GOP primaries. Unlike the 2016 and 2020 elections Trump underperforming public polls this year in state after state, replicating this broader post Dobbs pattern of our overperformance and MAGA’s struggle that we’ve seen in so many places. I still believe that our overperformance and their struggle is the most likely outcome for our elections here in the US this November. MAGA and Trump 2024 are far more dangerous and extreme than earlier versions of MAGA (here, here), and that when we put the choice to the American people of pragmatic Dems who make your lives better and fight for your freedoms and democracy versus the ugliness and danger of Trump we can and should win. As we head into a deeply consequential NATO Summit in Washington this week, NATO’s leaders will be arriving knowing that Europe just successfully stared down the Putinist right in both the European elections and now France. The new Prime Minister of the UK, Labour’s Keir Starmer, will be making his first appearance on the global stage having just given the right-wing Tories one of the worst defeats in UK history. There will be a sense of accomplishment, and achievement, in the NATO alliance this week. There will be much to celebrate at NATO’s 75th anniversary here. There will also be worry about what is happening here in the US. First, I think we need to be level-headed about the post debate polling. Yes, there has been bad polling for Biden and the Dems since the debate but there has also been much polling showing little change in the election or even Biden gaining. As I often suggest unless all the polling is pointing in the same direction - and it isn’t today - commentators should be careful to jumping to conclusions about what’s happening. We will learn more this week with new polling, and it is my expectation that Biden will see a 1-2-3 point drop - meaningful but not dramatic. And that decline is from a place where Biden headed into the debate leading in 538’s national polling average, and in a vastly improved place in the battlegrounds. Today Biden and Trump are tied in 538’s election forecast. Assertions that Biden has collapsed or Trump now has significant leads in the election are just not true. It remains, today, a close and competitive election. While there is disappointment in Joe Biden there is also still deep fear and opposition to MAGA and Trump, something I think was confirmed and thrown in our face by Trump’s wild and bat-shit crazy debate performance on the 27th. As I’ve been saying the national media here in the US may be inured to MAGA’s ugliness but voters here in the US are not. Next, the debate about Biden’s candidacy. As I’ve written to you, I am giving the President, his family and his team time and space to listen to party leaders and advisors, review new polling and get through the all-important NATO Summit before I make my judgment about the best path forward. For now it’s just head down, no letting up. Those calling on Biden to not run again I think underestimate the complexity of having a sitting President who just received tens of millions of votes in a primary - and still has broad and deep support in the Democratic electorate - just walk away. I also think those who are calling for a “blitz primary” or an open competition for the votes of Democratic delegates at the Convention underestimate the difficultly of by-passing the President’s chosen successor, Vice President Harris, who was not just elected Vice President by tens of millions of Americans but has just been made the President’s successor by tens of millions of Democrats THIS YEAR. We had a process this year for choosing our nominee and successor, and Democrats have already made their choice, democratically. Just undoing all that and giving the choice to a few thousand delegates to the Convention could create legitimacy issues with all the voters who believe they already voted in an open democratic process to make these decisions. It’s possible but not nearly as easy as some suggest. As I wrote to you last week, regardless of what happens, I think it essential that Democrats take a much more data-driven approach to understanding the strength and weaknesses of Vice President Harris. We don’t have a lot of polling about her but some of what we do have suggests she is bringing much more to the ticket, particularly with younger voters and voters of color, than is understood right now. I hope to dive into this issue in greater detail later in the coming days. A reminder of what CNN found last week:
Finally, Joe Biden. As people in this community know, I have been all in for Joe Biden. 100%. He has been a very good and successful President in a time of enormous challenge. The country is far better off today due to his grit, fierce determination, and willingness to go out there every day, with the intensity of a far younger man, and fight for all of us. I am proud of him, of his Presidency, and what will be a powerful and inspiring legacy no matter what happens. I was an early Biden supporter and frankly his Presidency has been far more successful and consequential than I could have imagined during the COVID-laden Democratic Primary of 2020. We are lucky that he choose to run in 2019 and lucky to have had him as President in a time of such enormous challenge. But I am, frankly, alarmed at how the White House has handled legitimate questions about his health and debate performance in recent days. I have been inundated with messages from medical professionals in the Hopium community who believe the President is showing clear signs of decline brought by a neurological condition like Parkinson’s. What we’ve gotten from the White House is that his February physical showed no signs of a neurological condition, and there are no plans to update that finding with new post-debate neurological tests. I find this answer to be unsatisfactory and a bit hard to believe. Clearly the President has to go through a comprehensive set of new tests. As someone who is going through a close relative’s decline due to Parkinson’s right now, I can attest that decline can be very rapid, and that five months can be an eternity. Relying on a February diagnosis given what we’ve seen with our own eyes, what we know about the devastating nature of some of these conditions, and what we know about the gravity of this political moment is just not acceptable. This is not about Joe Biden’s age. This is about getting clarity about whether he will be able to serve another four years. There cannot be and should not be any doubt or confusion about this, and a February diagnosis simply doesn’t cut it. The people of America, the people of our NATO allies, and the people of the world need more and better answers from Joe Biden and his family about his health and capacity to serve. For Hopium paid subscribers I want to thank you for the very spirited debate we are having in our daily chat about our future together and the 2024 election. No matter what happens, it is critical that we - at all times - demonstrate respect for the President, our leaders, each other. We can have this important debate without insult and arrogance, and acknowledgement that right now the family is divided, these are challenging matters, and that we will need to put our differences aside very soon and come together soon around a clear path forward. Savor the wins we had in the UK and in France in recent days. Celebrate NATO’s 75th Anniversary this week. Marvel at the continued strength of the American economy, and the success of the Biden Presidency. Never for a moment lose sight of the threat Trump and MAGA have become. Keep your head down and keep doing the work necessary to help us win. And let’s commit to find the best path forward, together, in the coming days and go out and win this thing in November. Proud to be this fight with all of you - Simon
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Monday, July 8, 2024
The Far Right Underperforms in Europe (Again), New Biden Ad, Legit Questions About Biden's Health, No Letting Up
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