Tuesday, July 9, 2024

Benedict's Newsletter: No. 548

NO. 548   FREE EDITION   TUE 9 JUL 2024
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My Work

Another Podcast: The AI Summer

As we go into the summer, we know a lot more about generative AI than we did six or nine months ago - or at least, we have better questions. LINK

News

Apple gets an OpenAI board seat? 

Apparently, part of Apple's deal with OpenAI is that it gets a board observer seat, with the slot probably going to Phil Schiller. Microsoft had to pay for this. This will give Apple visibility into everything the company does, and important insight into the cutting edge of AI research, since Sam Altman is scrupulously open, honest and transparent with the board. LINK

From magic to software 

YouTube previewed a tool to use generative AI to replace copyrighted music from your videos without affecting anything else. A few years ago this would have been expensive and time-consuming if it was even possible - soon it will just be a button.  This is the natural life cycle of all 'AI'. LINKVIDEO

Model efficiency

Google Deepmind published a paper proposing a new method for training ML models that uses 10x less compute. If this doesn't work, there will be others that do. LINK

Google AI on-device?

Google devoted pretty much all of this this year's IO developer event to generative AI, but Android was hardly mentioned, which was an obvious contrast to Apple's focus on on-device features. Now, apparently, it will offer some new AI features on its own Pixel devices. This is much harder for Google, of course - Apple controls the entire device and has industry-leading silicon to support its strategy of running models locally - Google's strength is in the cloud, whereas it has limited control over Android (and the Pixel has a tiny installed base). LINK

Anthropic pushes for risk measurement 

Anthropic announced a programme to fund people trying to build new ways to assess LLMs against a broad range of different criteria, including so-called 'AI risk'. LLMs are now in the 'feeds and speeds' phase, but we really don't have a good common set of ways to measure them. LINK

More French AI

Kytuai, a new French AI lab backed by Xavier Niel (google him), launched its first voice models. There will be a lot more of these. It's amusing to put this next to California's Doomers' charter, which moved further forward this week. I think doomers are often deeply naive about how complex the world is - they think it would be easy for an AGI to take over, and they think that a law in California can change what happens in France or China. LINKCALIFORNIA

Software eats cars

We may be deep in an autonomous car winter, but Waymo keeps shipping: it's now opened up its robotaxi service to everyone in San Francisco. Meanwhile, Ferrari is planning a battery subscription service - $7k a year for a full battery replacement every 8 years. Makes sense for a product that's supposed to be timeless. WAYMOFERRARI

This week in Shein and Temu

The FT and Bloomberg both report that the EU is looking at closing the same de minimus import tax threshold / loophole that is probably about to be closed in the USA, and that Shein and Temu have both benefited from. Meanwhile, the WSJ reports that these two companies are up to a third of total air freight on some routes. FTBLOOMBERGFREIGHT

Amazon does luxury? 

Saks, a US luxury retailer, is buying another, Neiman Marcus, for $2.65bn - noted here because Amazon and Salesforce are apparently taking minority stakes. Amazon has always wanted to get into luxury, but it's kind of antithetical to Amazon's entire model - I'm not sure what Salesforce is trying to do. LINK

About

What matters in tech? What's going on, what might it mean, and what will happen next?

I've spent 20 years analysing mobile, media and technology, and worked in equity research, strategy, consulting and venture capital. I'm now an independent analyst. Mostly, that means trying to work out what questions to ask.

Ideas

Sequoia Ventures on the gap between the (massive) amount of capital investment in generative AI and the revenue that will be needed to justify it. LINK

Notion's data use has increased 10x in the last 3 years. LINK

A long profile of a mid-western American farm town full of e-commerce warehouses. LINK

Goldman's CIO on deploying generative AI. LINK

Verge interview with Netflix on advertising. LINK

Outside interests

Florida Man shoots down drone. LINK

A graphic novel made (almost) entirely in Stable Diffusion. LINK

RIP Robert Towne. LINK

Why did interface designers standardise on 'purple sparkles' to denote generative AI? LINK

Data

Bessemer's 'State of AI Cloud' report. (Subtext: generative AI is starting to mature into separate segments at least enough for people to produce stand-alone analysis about those segments.) LINK

The EU updated its benchmarks for digital adoptions (TLDR: several years behind). LINK

Preview from the Premium edition

Podcasts are weird

Podcast are a big thing. Survey data tends to show that a third to a quarter of Americans listen to them every week, and they're something like 20% of all spoken audio listening, where radio is now only half. They're 40% of listening for 13-24s, and Spotify invested over a billion dollars in podcasts. 

But podcasts also seem like something very small and early. The experience is fragmented across a range of different apps from different companies, and these apps themselves control the discovery and the experience in ways that web browsers never could. The metrics are terrible. The format itself is monolithic and static, and very un-digital. It's as though, instead of the web, which is after all an open, composable, extensible, programmable network, we were all using random FTP apps from indie developers to download PDFs to read, and those FTP apps each had their own Yahoo-like hand-written directories instead of links and search.

It feels a little like some of the mid-1990s alternatives to the web - remember Pointcast or Hotline? Meanwhile, while Spotify has put serious effort into the podcast experience within its app, Apple's experience isn't great and Google's is barely present. 

 

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You're getting the Free edition. Subscribers to the Premium edition got this two days ago on Sunday evening, together with an exclusive column, complete access to the archive of over 500 issues, and more.
 

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