Tuesday, July 2, 2024

Benedict's Newsletter: No. 547

NO. 547   FREE EDITION   TUE 2 JUL 2024
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My Work

Generative AI and intellectual property

If you put all the world's knowledge into an AI model and use it to make something new, who owns that and who gets paid? This is a completely new problem that we've been arguing about for 500 years. (From last autumn.) LINK

Another Podcast: The AI Summer

As we go into the summer, we know a lot more about generative AI than we did six or nine months ago - or at least, we have better questions. LINK

News

Figma bounces back

Fresh from the cancelled $20bn Adobe acquisition, Figma launched its developer conference with big splash around generative AI. The Adobe deal was premised on Figma being a cloud-enabled disruptor of PC design software, and just six months later it's looking over its own shoulder at LLMs, with the more excitable 'AI maximalists' wondering if Anthropic or ChatGPT can just… make you a layout. Of course, the reality is more complex, and it's better to think in terms of automation and autocomplete than vertical software and replacing designers, but whole layers of grunt work will be removed, just as they were with GUIs and SQL. LINK

AI product

Anthropic has started building out team collaboration tools. One big question for the next couple of years might be whether the general LLMs become useful for specific, vertical tasks faster than the vertical tools get LLM features. LINK

Meanwhile, after hiring Kevin Weil (Twitter, Instagram) to run product, OpenAI bought two analysts startups, Multi and Rocket, also focusing on building out a useful product set. MULTI, ROCKSET

Music labels versus AI music generators 

There was a joke 20 years ago that instead of investing in music startups, it would save time if VCs just wired the money directly to the record labels (and their lawyers). Now the labels are suing several of the buzzy new AI music generators, while YouTube is trying to do deals. Suing everyone didn't save music sales, though, because the toothpaste was out of the tube, and it seems likely that the same applies here: the models will be public and enough of the training data will be too, so millions of people will be able to make 'music that sounds like Taylor Swift' on their PC. I wrote about the problem last year (see above). LABELS, YOUTUBE

The week in AI

Google published its latest 'Gemma' open source model, bouncing back to the top of the open LLM benchmark tables. LINK

Character.ai doesn't get much attention, but it's quietly one of the early breakout consumer hits of generative AI, with people doing huge volumes of chats with AI-generated avatars. LINK

NBC will use generative AI versions of its commentators to provide scaled, automated material for its Olympics coverage this summer. LINK

OpenAI is delaying the voice assistant (together with the 'Her' controversy) it announced earlier in the summer to work on safety concerns. LINK

I'm surprised it took this long, but OpenAI cut off API access in China. Good news for Chinese AI companies, which are not far behind - except of course for their access to Nvidia chips. LINK

Google used AI to add 110 new languages to Google translate. Age of Wonders. LINK

And, a startup called Etched launched a dedicated ASIC for transformers (the maths model inside LLMs) to take on Nvidia. I am not a semis analyst, but the track record of new chip companies isn't great - cf Graphcore's struggles (indeed, Nvidia itself is one of of the rare exceptions). But if it works... LINKGRAPHCORE

EU versus Microsoft

Very predictably, the EU has charged Microsoft with breaking competition law in bundling Teams with Office. Two challenges: first, yes, this does make life harder for Slack etc, but, if we took this logic at face value then your word processor would not be allowed to include a spell checker and your spreadsheet could not do charts (in the 1980s both of these were separate purchases). What's the coherent theory for how we choose the trade-off between integration and competition? Or are software companies just not allowed to add features once they pass a given level of market share? And second, whatever your view on that, it took the EU far too long to get to this: it's too late. LINK

Amazon, Temu and Shein

Amazon plans to launch its own marketplace to aggregate Chinese manufacturers, taking on Temu (though one of the claimed reasons for Temu's success is that many of the manufacturers were pushed of Amazon Marketplace previously). Meanwhile, Shein has filed confidentially for IPO in London, which means we will soon get to see some numbers. The last reports were that Shein did $45bn of GMV last year, which would make it the largest apparel retailer on earth. AMAZON, SHEIN

Software eats cars? 

VW stumbled badly trying to write its own car software as it transitions to EVs, and now it's done a $5bn JV with Rivian. Making cars at scale is really hard (hence all the EV bankruptcies in the last few months, and the hard-scrabble bootstrapping at Tesla), but so is software. LINK

Remember the Rabbit Phone?

Rabbit got a huge amount of attention in tech for a brief moment this year, based on a demo that looked magic but made little sense and was probably too good to be true (plus a cool hardware design from Teenaged Engineering). It's all been downhill since then, and this week someone worked out that it embedded all the API keys (OpenAI etc) in the device, giving anyone who cares full access to all user data. Oops. LINK

About

What matters in tech? What's going on, what might it mean, and what will happen next?

I've spent 20 years analysing mobile, media and technology, and worked in equity research, strategy, consulting and venture capital. I'm now an independent analyst. Mostly, that means trying to work out what questions to ask.

Ideas

A view of the impact of generative AI on Hollywood. LINK

Coca Cola's CMO on the impact of AI on marketing. LINK

Two analyses of the state of Google's proposed replacement for cookies, the Privacy Sandbox. CRITEOIAB

How Marc Jacobs goes viral on Tiktok. LINK

Marc Andreessen gives the complete oral history of Mosaic, Netscape and the early web. LINK

Outside interests

A good profile of Bernard Arnault. LINK

Video interview with the founder of Teenaged Engineering. LINK

Vitsoe does free-standing. If you know, you know. LINK

Paul Allen's tech history collection is up for auction at Christie's LINK

Data

70% of Americans shop on Chinese marketplace apps, but almost none trust them. LINK

Moody's analysis of the impact of WFH on office space, estimating a permanent reduction of 15-20% of demand for square footage. LINK

Buried in an Apple document on repairability, a statement that there are 'hundreds of millions' of iPhones in use today that are over five years old. LINK

It looks like Meta has sold 1m units of the Quest 3. LINK

The US may have tried to cut off Huawei, but its homegrown Android-derived platform now claims 1bn active devices. LINK

Preview from the Premium edition

Everyone knows, no-one knows 

I've spent a lot of the last year talking about AI to big companies (boards, client events, strategy events…), and hearing a lot of questions, and it often strikes me that most or even all questions about this have one of two answers. The answer is either "no-one knows" or "well, how did the last platform shift go?" 

First, the things no-one knows. Very obviously, we don't know how, when and whether LLM performance will top out. There are people who think it already has, people who think it's doubled in the last year, and people who think that a new wave of squillion-dollar 'AI factories' will bounce us forward by an order of magnitude. The AI Maximalist view is that these models can scale to do, well, the whole thing - that they can eat all current software and also eat a massive new class of complex tasks that was never in software before. But we don't know. 

Pushing one level into that, perhaps - we don't really know if the current apparent limitations of LLMs as useable tools as opposed to amazing demos are a short-term thing that will be solved incrementally, or that they require substantial model scaling, or require new breakthroughs of principle. 

THIS IS A PREVIEW FROM THE PREMIUM EDITION - PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS GET THE COMPLETE COLUMN EVERY WEEK. YOU SHOULD UPGRADE.
Upgrade to Premium
You're getting the Free edition. Subscribers to the Premium edition got this two days ago on Sunday evening, together with an exclusive column, complete access to the archive of over 500 issues, and more.
 

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