Trump Is In Trouble, The Biden Latino Campaign Begins, Let's Do More And Worry LessThurs, 1pm ET - My "With Democrats, Things Get Better" presentation - Register today!Happy Tuesday all. Got a few things for you today: Trump Is In Trouble - As I’ve been arguing here for weeks I think Donald Trump is a far weaker candidate than conventional wisdom reflects right now. His agenda is much more extreme and dangerous than Trump 2020, who lost. His performance on the stump is far more erratic and disturbing. He keeps losing in court, is now an adjudicated rapist and fraudster, and may be facing personal bankruptcy due to his misdeeds. But of all of this challenges, I think the splintering of his party, and the refusal/reluctance of the non-MAGA wing of the GOP to get behind Trump may be the biggest threat of all. With Pence, Romney, the Cheneys and a growing chorus of prominent Republicans coming out against Trump, the permission structure to walk away from the GOP nominee is getting far stronger. We’ve already seen it in the data - a large chunk of Republican voters are ready to bolt from Trump. A central reason we did so well in the 2022 battleground states is that the Trumpy/MAGA candidates failed to bring the GOP coalition together, bled Republicans, and we defied history and won big in a year that was supposed to be tough for us. But what we are now learning is that this reluctance to back Trump from more traditional Republicans may not only be potentially costing him votes, it may costing him the hard dollars (individual donations) needed to run a Presidential campaign. From the NYTimes:
Now this from a new CNBC article:
It’s my belief that something broke inside the Republican Party when Dobbs happened. It was too much, MAGA had gone too far for many non-MAGA Republicans. And in election after election since Dobbs Democrats have brought the intensity and overperformed while Republicans have repeatedly struggled. And when I say struggled it has not just been with voters and elections it has also been with money. Our fired up grassroots has helped our candidates, party committees and ballot initiatives outraise Republicans again and again. We’ve seen this post-Dobbs struggle with Trump in this election too. He has underperformed public polling consistently in the early 2024 states. He is facing an unprecedented revolt from more traditional Republicans. And now this struggle is showing up in what can only be described as anemic low dollar fundraising, the money needed to build a Presidential campaign in our system, and in high dollar fundraising too (from CNBC):
Friends, Donald Trump is the worst candidate to run for President in our history. MAGA is a failed politics and just keeps losing. Based on all this new reporting, it appears an awful lot of Republicans agree, and Trump’s Presidential campaign is already in serious, serious trouble. New Biden-Harris Latino Campaign Begins This Week - The Biden-Harris campaign is launching its national Latino effort this week, and kicking it off with a series of ads. An English version of the first ad is below, as is some background on the campaign. Adelante!
Are We Better Off? Hell Yeah, Part 3,732 - Yesterday I posted about a new Axios articles showing how remarkably strong the American economy has been under Biden. Here’s a bit more on that from The Economist:
For a reminder about how bad things were under Trump, let’s turn to comedian Sarah Cooper in this video from April, 2020. It’s important to watch. Why I Am Optimistic About Winning This November - New resources for your viewing, listening and reading pleasure: Posts, Analyses, Op-Eds - The Country Is Better Off and The Democratic Party is Strong, Why I Am Optimistic About Winning This November, There’s Only One Party Good At This Capitalism Thing, Moving On From The Trump Trials, Biden’s Chances Are Much Stronger Than People Realize (MSNBC), 4 Things Biden Should Do Now (New Republic), The President Is Clearly Fighting For Us. Now We Need To Fight For Him The GOP Is Splintering/MAGA Is A Failed Politics, The GOP Has Worse Than Nothin’ Video Presentations - My Latest Election Overview - “I’d Much Rather Be Us Than Them” (with Anderson Clayton too), Gov. Gavin Newsom Joins Us To Talk State Of The Union, 2024 Election, Hopium’s 1st Birthday! New Audio Podcasts - The New Republic’s Daily Blast With Greg Sargent, NewDEAL’s An Honorable Profession, Deep State Radio with David Rothkopf and Tara McGowan Thurs, March 21st 1pm ET - With Democrats, Things Get Better - Come join me this Thursday for my signature presentation, “With Democrats, Things Get Better.” It is a 30 minute deep dive into American politics since the Cold War ended and a new age of globalization began. And what it finds is that when Democrats are in the White House, things get better for America. When Republicans are in charge, we get recession, higher deficits, failed foreign policy and American decline. Register for the live presentation this Thursday, and if you can’t make it live a recording will be shared on Friday. Let’s Do More, Worry Less - Here at Hopium we strive to channel all this worry and anxiety we have about our current moment into concrete action - do more, worry less - as we say here. Here are a few things you can do right now, today: Donate to and join the Biden-Harris campaign - This is very important. The general election has begun and it’s time to get on board the Biden-Harris train. Please donate whatever amount you can - $5, $10 - just to get started. So far we’ve raised $167,000 from 2,209 of you for Biden Harris - thank you all! Make an early investment in North Carolina - North Carolina is our most important 2024 battleground expansion state. Please donate today! For more on why I think North Carolina is so important watch my in-depth interview with Anderson Clayton, the dynamic new NC Dem Party chair; learn about the extremists running statewide in North Carolina this year and why they give us a great opportunity to grow, expand and flip NC blue; and hear Anderson give us an update on her work and the impact our investments are having there. So far we’ve raised $119,000 from over 1,511 of you for Anderson and the NC Dems - thank you all! Help Ruben Gallego Win Arizona - Last week I endorsed Ruben Gallego in his race to become the next Senator in Arizona. The polls are encouraging there, and this is a very critical 2024 battleground state - must win Biden-Harris state, must win Senate, two House pick up opportunities (and maybe the state house too). Because Senator Sinema stayed in for so long, Ruben is a bit behind where he should be financially and organizationally, and needs our help today. Please donate today, and I will be posting some volunteer opportunities in the coming days. We have already raised over $61,000 from over 925 of you - thank you all! Spread Hopium - Encourage people in your networks to become a Hopium subscriber. Our goal is to get to 50,000 overall subscribers by March 31st (we’re at 48,000 today), and we’ve already hit our goal of 6,000 paid subscribers! With your help we can hit our big subscriber goal, keep growing our community, and keep bringing the upbeat, data-filled analysis here to more and more people. You can also become a paid subscriber which helps us grow here. ![]() Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon You're currently a free subscriber to Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. |
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Trump Is In Trouble, The Biden Latino Campaign Begins, Let's Do More And Worry Less
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