Tuesday, March 19, 2024

Benedict's Newsletter: No. 532

NO. 532   FREE EDITION   TUE 19 MAR 2024
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My Work

A month of the Vision Pro

The Vision Pro is amazing, but like the rest of VR and AR, Apple seems years away from the mass market. And if it gets there, how much will it matter? LINK

News

Apple does AI

Apple published a paper announcing and giving many details of 'MM1', its own generative AI LLM, which appears to be comparable to market-leading models on at least some benchmarks. I'm old enough to remember the last time that people said Apple 'couldn't do AI', and that time too this was fundamentally a public, openly-available technology. We should expect Apple to spend a lot of this summer's WWDC talking about AI: there will be a lot of AI-powered features and (like last time) lots of things that work better without being branded 'AI'. The obvious question of course is how much this runs on the device, and whether Apple does an actual chatbot, given all the challenges both in cost-per-question and reliability, but I expect a lot of discrete unbundled features - 'edit a photo with Siri', say. Remember, incumbents always try to make the new thing a feature. MM1 PAPERDARWINAI

America's Tiktok law?

America's new law to force Bytedance to divest Tiktok is gathering momentum. See this week's column. LINK

The US needs a privacy law: case 1 of ♾️

The US is debating a law about Tiktok, but meanwhile GM, Subaru, Kia and Mitsubishi provide personally identifiable driver telemetry data to car insurance data brokers, often hidden as part of 'click-through' agreements that drivers never see. This kind of thing would be all kinds of illegal under GDPR. (Note, tangentially, that China has placed restrictions on where Teslas can drive to prevent data leakage, especially from the cameras.) LINK

The week in AI

Amazon continues to deploy generative AI for Marketplace: this week it has a tool that will auto-generate product listings based on your website. LINK

Robots are having a moment around AI and generative AI: Physical Intelligence did a $70m seed round this week. LINK

Lots of excitement in software development circles around Cognition's Devin, which it claims as a big step forward in using generative AI to write analyse and deploy code for you, combining many different kinds of tasks. LINK

The CTO of OpenAI, Mira Murati, gave a car-crash interview with the WSJ about Sora, its new video generation model, in which she replied to basic questions about what was used as training data by looking surprised and saying 'I don't know'. Even if you don't want to say, you should probably have actual answers (even non-answers) to such obvious questions, especially when you're being sued over this. LINK

Deepmind worked out a method to steal private information about the internals of an LLM by crafting special queries into the public API. LINK

Midjourney accused Stability of trying to scrape its systems. People who think that the entire field of image-generators are based on theft (I don't) will think this is hilarious, but meanwhile, Stability seems a bit… accident-prone. LINK

India thought better of requiring pre-approval for all new AI models. LINK

Th EU AI Act

The EU finally passed its AI Act. The process for this began well before the emergence of Generative AI, which was hastily bolted on in the last year, but trying to regulate a space that's changing so much so quickly, and where so much is unclear, seems misguided. More fundamentally, though, I think that regulating 'AI' is the wrong level of abstraction: you would not try to prevent the UK Post Office scandal by creating a Database Regulator, and you wouldn't try to prevent a repeat of FTX by creating a Spreadsheet Regulator. A law to cover anything bad that might happen with AI - and there will be plenty - is trying to combine far too many quite unrelated kinds of problems. NEWSLINK

Starbucks gives up on NFTs

A couple of year ago Starbucks decided to build an NFT-based rewards program - now, given the collapse in interest in the space, it's quietly shutting the whole thing down. You could make an argument that putting such a scheme on a blockchain would provide a new layer of trust (Starbucks can't mess with the rules, or at least you can see if it does) and 'composability' (third party developers can plug in) but not everything needs to be a platform - sometimes a database is just a database. LINKSTARBUCKS

Who is Satoshi? 

Bitcoin was created anonymously, by someone using the (presumable) pseudonym Satoshi Nakomoto, and for years an Australian called Craig Wright has been claiming that was him, and suing people who expressed skepticism. Now a UK court, after a six week trial, has held that no, he is not Satoshi. LINK

Texas versus age filters

Texas is the latest US state to require adult sites to get an ID (or use a third-party provider) before allowing access, and the biggest site (you know the name - rhymes with...) has duly blocked users there rather than comply, arguing that such verification doesn't actually work and that it should not be collecting such information anyway. Meta and others have argued that the smartphone OS (i.e. Apple and Google) should play this role, verifying an ID in a secure on-device way and passing validation on to sites and apps with an anonymous API, which seems sensible to me. LINK

About

What matters in tech? What's going on, what might it mean, and what will happen next?

I've spent 20 years analysing mobile, media and technology, and worked in equity research, strategy, consulting and venture capital. I'm now an independent analyst. Mostly, that means trying to work out what questions to ask.

Ideas

Hugo Barra, who used to run Oculus, wrote a long and thoughtful piece about the Vision Pro and where we are on the path to VR and AR. LINK

An interview with the founder of Perplexity, one of the 'not GAFA' second-tier generative AI start-ups. LINK

Stripe's annual letter is always worth reading. LINK

EU cookie laws keep getting more baroque and user-hostile. LINK

The FT interviewed Pavel Durov about Telegram: it has 900m users, 'hundreds of millions of dollars' of revenue, is nearing profitability, and is considering an IPO.  LINKCOMMENT

An argument that MrBeast warped Youtube and that YouTube is warping him back. LINK

The New Yorker interviewed a bunch of 'AI Doomers'. The result is actually most interesting as a piece about the sociology of the Bay Area: tech and tech subcultures as lifestyle, with AI Doomers as similar to the social groups around VR, crypto or nootropics a few years ago. And a lot of people who live in a bubble. LINK

Meta wrote a detailed piece on the AI infrastructure that it's building. LINK

Rolling Stone on Suno, a generative AI music startup, and what it might mean for the music industry. Listen to the demo, seriously. LINK

Gartner proposes that generative AI could kill (say) 25% of search traffic. LINK

Outside interests

A nail house in Florida. LINK

Is there a reaction again dating apps (which are now at least half of new US relationships)? LINK

OMA's work for Prada. LINK

Data

Interesting Sparktoro data on web time spent and referral traffic. Where do people spend time, and how do they get there? LINK

The Brave browser saw a 40% uplift in smartphone installs after the EU browser ballot went live … but that was an absolute increase of just 3k a day. (This whole thing is such a waste of time.) LINK

Preview from the Premium edition

Ways to think about Tiktok 

A meaningful proportion of Americans get a meaningful proportion of their news from Tiktok. Tiktok is owned by Bytedance, a Chinese company, and all Chinese companies ultimately have to obey the Chinese state, with no transparency or right to object, unless they want their management to disappear. Bytedance has made a series of promises about separating the operations of TikTok from Chinese involvement, that don't really seem to have been kept. And, it is entirely in the character of the present Chinese government that it could tell Bytedance that certain kinds of stories should be seen a lot more by Americans, and that others should be seen much less.

I don't think there's really much reasonable grounds to dispute any of the above (conversely, I struggle to see the relevance of what China allows US companies to do in China). And it's an election year in the USA, with a close election expected. The US has long-standing and entirely accepted rules on foreign ownership of TV (this is why Rupert Murdoch became a US citizen), and Tiktok looks a lot like TV. 

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